Good morning. The first half of 2026 is in the books, and it was loud — a war-driven oil shock, an inflation scare, and a hawkish new Fed chair. The scoreboard, though, tells a calmer story. (~5 min read.)
By the Numbers · First Half 2026
Index / Asset | Level | H1 Return |
|---|---|---|
Nasdaq Composite | ~26,520 | ≈ +12% |
S&P 500 | ~7,500 | ≈ +11% |
Dow Jones | ~51,565 | ≈ +7% |
WTI Crude | ~$89 | ▲ (Iran shock) |
Gold | ~$4,165 | ▼ off Jan peak |
10-Yr Treasury | 4.49% | ▲ from ~4.2% |
US Bonds (Agg) | — | ≈ flat* |
*Higher yields pressured bond prices while income offset much of it. Equity figures are price returns, rounded; lock exact numbers before send.
The Story · A Loud Half, a Solid Scorecard
If you only read the headlines, you'd have braced for a bad year. The Iran conflict spiked oil in February; inflation pushed to 4.2%; Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting flipped the dot plot toward hikes. Yet large-cap stocks enter July up double digits — led by technology and semiconductors, with a mid-June Iran de-escalation removing the worst-case oil scenario.
The lesson for clients is the most reusable one we have: the year that felt the scariest was, so far, a rewarding one for the patient. Bonds did their quieter job — income up, prices pressured by higher rates — exactly the shock-absorber role they're meant to play.
Talking Points · The Mid-Year Review
"How did we do in the first half?" Better than the headlines would suggest. Diversified portfolios broadly participated in a double-digit stock market while bonds added stability. More important than the number: nothing in the plan needed a panic move, even on the scary days.
"Should we change anything for the second half?" Mid-year is a great time to rebalance back to your targets and confirm nothing has changed in your life — not to make a call on where the market goes next.
"What are the risks from here?" The same ones that were scary and didn't derail things: rates staying higher, energy, and geopolitics. We can't predict them, but the portfolio is built to absorb them.
The Wire · Mid-Year Reading
S&P Dow Jones Indices — official index levels and returns.
Federal Reserve — monetary policy — the H1 rate path, primary source.
Advisor Perspectives — independent mid-year outlooks for advisors.
Practice Corner · Book the Mid-Year Reviews
A halftime scorecard is the perfect reason to reach out. Send a two-line note — "We're at the mid-point of a noisy year; here's how your plan held up, let's grab 20 minutes" — and you'll fill your July calendar with proactive reviews instead of reactive worry.
The Number
≈ +11% — the S&P 500's first-half gain, earned through an oil shock, an inflation scare, and a hawkish Fed pivot.
The Morning Capital is an independent publication for educational and informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice; not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Market data is from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; figures are point-in-time and rounded. Past performance is not indicative of future results.