Good morning. The first half of 2026 is in the books, and it was loud — a war-driven oil shock, an inflation scare, and a hawkish new Fed chair. The scoreboard, though, tells a calmer story. (~5 min read.)
By the Numbers · First Half 2026
| Index / Asset | Level | H1 Return |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | ~26,520 | ≈ +12% |
| S&P 500 | ~7,500 | ≈ +11% |
| Dow Jones | ~51,565 | ≈ +7% |
| WTI Crude | ~$89 | ▲ (Iran shock) |
| Gold | ~$4,165 | ▼ off Jan peak |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.49% | ▲ from ~4.2% |
| US Bonds (Agg) | — | ≈ flat* |
*Higher yields pressured bond prices while income offset much of it. Equity figures are price returns, rounded; lock exact numbers before send.
The Story · A Loud Half, a Solid Scorecard
If you only read the headlines, you'd have braced for a bad year. The Iran conflict spiked oil in February; inflation pushed to 4.2%; Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting flipped the dot plot toward hikes. Yet large-cap stocks enter July up double digits — led by technology and semiconductors, with a mid-June Iran de-escalation removing the worst-case oil scenario.
The lesson for clients is the most reusable one we have: the year that felt the scariest was, so far, a rewarding one for the patient. Bonds did their quieter job — income up, prices pressured by higher rates.
Talking Points · The Mid-Year Review
"How did we do in the first half?" Better than the headlines would suggest. Diversified portfolios broadly participated in a double-digit stock market while bonds added stability. More important than the number: nothing in the plan needed a panic move, even on the scary days.
"Should we change anything for the second half?" Mid-year is a great time to rebalance back to your targets and confirm nothing has changed in your life — not to make a call on where the market goes next.
"What are the risks from here?" The same ones that were scary and didn't derail things: rates staying higher, energy, and geopolitics. We can't predict them, but the portfolio is built to absorb them.
The Wire · Mid-Year Reading
Practice Corner · Book the Mid-Year Reviews
The Number
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices & market trackers (H1 2026); Federal Reserve H.15; EIA / Trading Economics. Figures rounded.
The Morning Capital is an independent publication produced for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Market data is from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; figures are point-in-time and rounded. Past performance is not indicative of future results.