This morning brings what many desks are calling the market’s most important data point of the year: the June inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, landing just hours before new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first testimony to Congress. It arrives as a renewed Strait of Hormuz blockade pushed oil higher and chip stocks lower to start the week — even as stocks closed out a winning five days.
By the Numbers
Week ending Friday, July 10, 2026
| Index / Asset | Level | 1-Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +1.23% | +10.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,281.61 | +1.74% | +13.1% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | 52,637.01 | −0.50% | +9.5% |
| 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 4.56% | +9 bps | — |
| WTI Crude | ~$72.10 | +6.7% | — |
| Gold (futures) | $4,112 | +0.81% | — |
Levels are Friday, July 10, 2026 closes. 1-week is vs. Thursday, July 2 close (U.S. markets were closed Friday, July 3 for Independence Day); Treasury 1-week in basis points. Note: WTI and gold both finished the week above their July 2 levels but came off midweek highs — crude touched ~$76.70 intraweek before easing. YTD figures are derived from index levels and may vary slightly by source. Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Stock Rover, Advisor Perspectives, Bloomberg. Figures are point-in-time and will have moved by the time you read this.
The Story
Two forces are set to collide this morning: a June inflation reading and a brand-new Fed chair explaining himself to Congress for the first time.
The June CPI is expected to look tame on the surface — headline prices may have actually fallen for the month as gasoline cooled. But the number markets care about is core inflation, which strips out food and energy and has been stubbornly parked near 2.9%. A soft core reading would strengthen the case that rate cuts are still on the table; a hot one would revive the “higher for longer” debate that has kept the 10-year Treasury yield elevated.
The timing adds an extra twist. June’s data predate this month’s renewed oil spike, so it captures a calmer energy backdrop than the one investors are living in right now. That gap — between what the June report shows and what July’s Hormuz headlines imply — is exactly what Warsh will be asked to square when he faces lawmakers a little after 9:30. For clients, the takeaway isn’t a forecast; it’s that one data point rarely settles the story.
The Wire
Renewed Hormuz blockade lifts oil, pressures chips
Stocks slipped Monday after President Trump said he was reinstating a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher. Semiconductor names led the decline, with newly listed memory maker SK Hynix among the hardest hit. Energy shares cushioned the Dow, which fell less than the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
June inflation and Warsh’s first testimony land today
The June Consumer Price Index is out at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting headline prices to dip about 0.1% on the month — helped by lower June gasoline — even as core inflation stays sticky near 2.9% year-over-year. About an hour later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first semiannual testimony to the House, where lawmakers will press him on the rate path. Together they form the clearest read yet on whether the Fed’s next move is a cut, a hold, or something else.
Second-quarter earnings season opens with the big banks
Q2 reporting ramps up this week, with the large banks among the first to post results. It’s investors’ first broad look at how corporate America navigated a quarter marked by tariff headlines, a new Fed chair, and a midyear oil spike. Strong guidance could reinforce the market’s recent tech-led gains; soft numbers would give the bulls something to chew on.
Talking Points
“Why is everyone making such a big deal about today’s inflation report?”
Because it feeds directly into the Fed’s rate decisions, and rates touch almost everything — mortgages, savings yields, and how the market values stocks. A cooler-than-expected reading tends to support the case for rate cuts; a hotter one pushes that conversation out. It’s less about this single month and more about which direction the trend is heading.
“Will the recent jump in oil prices show up in this number?”
Not this one. Today’s report covers June, and the latest oil spike happened in July, so it won’t appear until next month’s data at the earliest. In fact, June gasoline was lower, which is part of why headline inflation may have dipped. It’s a good reminder that economic data always looks slightly in the rear-view mirror.
“The market keeps swinging on every Fed headline — should I be doing something?”
Days like today can be noisy, but a diversified plan is built to ride through exactly this kind of noise. Reacting to a single data release often means buying or selling on emotion rather than strategy. The steadier approach is to let the plan — not the headline — drive the decisions, and to revisit it on a schedule rather than on a whim.
Practice Corner
Steal this client email
Subject: A quick note on today’s inflation report
Hi [Name],
You may see headlines today about the June inflation report and the new Fed chair’s testimony to Congress. Here’s the short version: it’s an important data point for interest rates, and markets may move around on it — but a single report rarely changes the bigger picture. One detail worth knowing: this report covers June, so it doesn’t yet reflect the recent move in oil prices.
Your plan was designed with days like this in mind. Nothing here calls for action on our end, but if you’d like to talk it through, I’m a call away.
[Your name]
The Number
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The Morning Capital — Markets. In context. An independent, educational market brief for financial professionals.
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. It is not personalized to any individual's circumstances. Market data is point-in-time, drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed, and is subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.